(Bloomberg) -- Hours after 100 Israeli warplanes swooped over southern Lebanon, taking out thousands of Hezbollah missile launchers in what was called a preemptive strike, the Middle East braced for an expanded conflagration that could involve Iran and its allied militias.
Tensions deescalated on Monday, but remain high and the risk of a region-wide war is still present.
Israel’s assault on Sunday morning was based, Israeli officials said, on intelligence that Hezbollah was about to fire thousands of missiles at northern Israel as well as drones at a key intelligence center just north of Tel Aviv in retaliation for the killing of its commander in July.
Israel declared a 48-hour state of emergency and shut its main airport for several hours, with numerous airlines canceling flights. Hezbollah responded by firing more than 200 projectiles, according to Israel, although officials said very limited damage was caused. One Israeli soldier was killed by falling debris, while three deaths were reported in Lebanon.
If Hezbollah had successfully executed an attack on targets in central Israel, the tit-for-tat fighting that’s been simmering on the border area for 10 months may have turned into wider warfare.
Oil prices rose, with traders concerned about an escalation, especially if Iran became directly involved. Brent climbed almost 1% to just below $80 a barrel by 2:45 p.m. in Singapore.
“Our hope is that the events of last night do not spill out into an escalation that leads to regional war,” US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters on Sunday evening during a visit to Canada.
For now, there’s relative calm.
“It was a huge success that we detected the plans and now there is the possibility for both sides not to escalate this very complex situation,” said retired Brigadier General Ilan Biton, a former chief of defense for Israel’s air force. Both Israel and Hezbollah announced that for the moment, their operations were over — despite ongoing low-level fighting.
Israel soon reopened its airport and eased restrictions on public gatherings. Israel’s military spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, said there was no damage to any Israeli military base. The Israeli army didn’t reimpose safety restrictions on the population on Sunday night, indicating it didn’t expect another attack imminently.
Significantly, negotiations in Cairo aimed at establishing a cease-fire in Gaza between Israel and the Palestinian militia Hamas commenced as planned on Sunday.
Yet while Israeli officials said there was progress, Hamas, after its delegation left Cairo on Sunday evening, suggested otherwise.
Israel has “set new conditions for a cease-fire” and “is still procrastinating,” according to a statement citing Osama Hamdan, a spokesman and leader of Hamas. In a dig at US President Joe Biden’s administration, he said it’s “planting false hope by talking about an imminent agreement for electoral purposes.”
The talks are set to continue at lower levels in the coming days in an effort to bridge gaps between the parties, the Associated Press reported, citing a US official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The official said the recent talks have been constructive and the parties are working to reach an implementable agreement.
Underscoring ‘Consequences’
The Israeli exchange with Hezbollah “is more likely to aid than complicate the cease-fire talks,” said Mike Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute. “By sending a message that Israel is willing and able to escalate, and that Washington will back it when it does so, the US and Israel have underscored the consequences for Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran of continuing to refuse a deal.”
Hezbollah said its attack on Israel was planned as the start of retaliation for the killing of its commander Fuad Shukr on July 30 in Beirut’s southern suburbs. The group said it fired more than 320 missiles, followed up by drones, to target 11 army barracks and military sites in northern Israel.
The Mossad intelligence service’s base in Glilot was the main target of the attack, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said Sunday.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a security cabinet meeting Sunday and said he was “determined to do everything to defend our country, to return the residents of the north securely to their homes, and to continue upholding a simple rule: Whoever harms us — we will harm them.”
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke by phone over the weekend. Israel declined to say whether the US was given advance warning of Sunday’s attack, with a military spokesman saying: “This was an Israeli operation.”
US Support
The US has stepped up its naval and air defense presence in the region as a warning to Iran and its allies not to increase hostilities.
Asked if Israel had informed the US in advance of its plans to hit at Hezbollah, Sullivan, the national security adviser, sidestepped the question. “I can’t speak directly to the conversations that unfolded yesterday, other than to say there was continuous communication, and we have been tracking the threat of Hezbollah attacks against Israel for some time now,” he said.
But despite fresh US statements Sunday affirming support for Israel’s right to defense, the attack on Hezbollah is a setback for “American diplomacy, which has been laser-focused on de-escalation” and on the search for a cease-fire in Gaza, according to Merissa Khurma, director of the Middle East program at the Wilson Center in Washington. “In private, the past ten-plus months have showcased various ebbs and flows in US-Israeli relations, and certainly a significant rise in tensions.”
She said it raises doubts among regional allies about “whether the US still has leverage over Israel.”
Israel and Hezbollah have been trading fire along the border since October, when the Lebanese organization entered the fray in support of Hamas in Gaza. Israeli strikes have killed at least 500 people since then, most of them Hezbollah fighters. In Israel, roughly 30 soldiers and 18 civilians have been killed by Hezbollah attacks.
Preventing the skirmishes from escalating even further has been at the heart of international diplomatic efforts to ease tension across the Middle East.
Hours after an Israeli airstrike on July 30 killed Hezbollah’s military chief in Beirut, Iran blamed Israel for killing the head of Hamas’ political office, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. Iran has vowed to retaliate but it has also said it would do so on its own timetable. Israel has repeatedly warned it not to do so.
On Sunday, Netanyahu warned Hezbollah and Iran that the latest attack isn’t “the end of the story,” and was “another step on the way to changing the situation in the north, and return our residents safely to their homes.”
Evacuations
The US has been trying to mediate between Lebanon and Israel to reach a compromise over border disputes. Tens of thousands of Israelis and Lebanese have been evacuated from the border area due to the fighting, and Israel wants Hezbollah to move its fighters away from the border to allow its citizens to return.
Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran and designated a terrorist organization by the US, says it will continue hostilities with Israel until the country agrees to a cease-fire in Gaza with Hamas, also designated a terrorist group by the US and others.
The war in the Palestinian enclave began on Oct. 7 after Hamas militants, supported by Iran, invaded Israel and killed 1,200 people and abducted others. Israel’s retaliation in Gaza has killed at least 40,000 people, according to Hamas health officials in Gaza.
--With assistance from Natalia Drozdiak, Omar Tamo, Marissa Newman, Jenny Leonard, Brian Platt and Jon Herskovitz.
(Updates with latest on Monday, Israel-Hamas cease-fire talks and oil prices rising.)
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